There are many methods scientists use to estimate earthquake probabilities. One technique is using the Global Positioning System (GPS) which permits geologist and scientists make precise measurements of plate motion (Aagaard, et al., 2016). There are two pieces of information to base long term earthquakes predictions. The identification of seismic zones, the location of frequently past earthquakes and recurrence interval, the average time among repeated events of earthquake along its faults (Marshark, 2015). Another way to estimate the chance of earthquakes occurring is finding the rate strain accumulates in the rock.
There is a 98% chance an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger will happen in the San Francisco area before 2043. A 72% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7.0, and a 50% of larger earthquake occurring (Aagaard, et al., 2016). Faults like the San Andreas, Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras have the highest estimated probability of earthquakes occurring between 2014 and 2043. In the 30-year forecast, Hayward and Rodgers Creek fault have a 33 percent of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or larger. The San Andreas fault with a 22 percent of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or …show more content…
Before an earthquake, people should observe their surroundings for hazards and potential moveable items. Plan an emergency response plan and communicate it to all members in the family. In addition, minimize financial hardships by reinforcing certain parts of their homes, getting insurance and organizing important documents (Southern California Earthquake Center @ USC, 2016). During an earthquake, it is important to watch their surroundings by following the simple steps that include drop, cover, and hold. After the earthquake, improve safety by checking for injuries or damage. Lastly, the recovery part of an earthquake. Reconnecting and restoring back to life and rebuilding the community (Southern California Earthquake Center @ USC,