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24 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
Energy budget |
incidence energy, from sun, is the balance of what goes in and what goes out about 25% is absorbed, 75% reflected back to space, changing the 23 % leads to climate change |
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Milankovitch Cycle |
eccentricity: shape of orbit obliquity: tilt of earth's axis Precession: earths wobble this three parameters change with time leads to climate change glacial and interglacial cycles |
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greenhouse effect |
gases in atmosphere absorb infrared light Jean Fourier , basic physics Arrhenius , provided first temp estimates CO2 accounts for only 50% of greenhouse effect rest s from methane and freon traces average temp on earth is getting hotter methane is much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 methane is mostly frozen , raising temp ! Local climate change is not predictable |
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temp future projections IPCC |
what parameters go into models, anthropogenic and natural forces CO2 emissions , future Co2 projections based on human useage of fossil fuels EMISSIONS based on human behavior |
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biology of climate change |
increase co2 , affects physiological, phenology, distribution of species , in turn affects species interactions and in turn affects extinction , speciation, composition of communities will be very different , change in biota |
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Changes in Phenology |
study of temporal aspects of natural recurrent phenomenom and their relation to climate egg-laying, flowering, leaf fall hibernation transition from larvae to adult migration not record for phenology, it is an obervation phenologies of some temperate species is controled by photoperiod (length of day) not changed by temp change. |
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Consequences of changing phenology |
Anerican robin, winter temp change , shortens , migrate to breeding ground early , temps in northen latitudes are changing at different rates than lower latitudes |
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Disrupted Synchrony |
mismatching in timing of phenological shifts can disrupt species interactions in early winter moth mates female lays eggs eggs have diapause, hatch in Feb , if hatch too early, caterpillars will starve , if after bud burst less eatable leaves are available |
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Environmental Sex Determination |
reptiles, female lay eggs, temp determine sex, sex ratio is dependent on temp tuatara= as temp gets hotter, more females, leading to decline of population |
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Species Range Shifts response to high temp |
range moves north , to higher latitudes different species moves at different rates. but not all species shifts. changes , local extinction- recolonization |
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Altitudinal Changes |
fossil pollen, sheep ranges of nevada small mammals in Yosemite species range contracts upward with high temp each species range shift is individualistic based on physiolocial changes |
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CLementian Model Clements Community level changes |
community level changes clements , ecologist, argued that when climate changes the community they respond in a cohesive manner communities of super organisms that respond cohesively |
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Gleasonian Model |
species respond individualistic to climate change. communities represent a shared tolerance that happen to intersect at a given time they respond to climate change based on their physiology, biology, shifts are individualistic communities are reshuffled |
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taking mud core |
sample mud seperate pollen , identify and count gives you relative abundance of species at that time , carbon dating dates the core + sample corroborates Gleason model
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the green sahara hypothesis |
if you go back 6,000 years ago lush vegetative place supported by climate model it was wet and lush , no desert also supported by rock art , people diving into water |
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effects of future warming models |
use enivironmental distributions of species and their physiology to predict new distributions under climatic conditions advantages can use for any species( climate Envelope) max temp min temp, it can exist then apply new scenario to climate envelope all you need is range map and environmental data disadvantages data limitations: except for few species, no god data for range map, climate envelope will not be accurate too simple: we do not know physiology for all species assumes no adaptation of species some species have been shown to adapt |
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effects of future warming experiments |
micro and mesocosm are restricted to plant communities, hard to tract animals, :heat things up , pump CO2 into canopy, changes in soil to communities changes in precipation advantages : easy to manipulate, temp co2 nitrogen test for different combinations of these factors disadvantages: logistical constraint , must distribute over small areas over globe hard to extrapolate, apply results to whole ecosystems what happens to associated species GOOD ONLY FOR short lived plants
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effects of future warming empirical approach observations and tests |
comparative approach look at responses over gradients, co2 , temp, nitrogen based on results you can build statistical models if you change the temp this way or that you can predict what will happen to species based these historic gradients adavantages: large spatial and temporal scales disadvantages : nonexperimental data limitations hard to seperate environmental change from other anthropegenic change non analog communties: there is no analog of past communites today , they have obviously changed. and if the current communtiy is unique, statistical model may not be able to predict changes accurately as we destroy habitats, will there be habitat for species to move into? |
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Pica Ochotona Princeps |
small herbivores, live in very high altitudes, restricted habitat. may run out of habitat great basin has extinct populations |
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Ocean Acidification |
oceans absorb CO2 the other CO2 problem half of anthropogneic CO2 is absorbed by ocean ph will drop by 0.5untis by 2100 Will cause species with calcified shells to decline, they will not be able to grow, precipitate their exoskeletons pH is not stable across ocean, why ? pH not same across ocean because of upwelling , cold water tend to be lower in pH how does changing chem in ocean affect animals |
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Tatoosh Island |
declining pH of intertidal community tidepools pH testing, they varied substantially they tested pH during night and day, to account for local CO2, net effect the pH is declining short term microcosm exp.s showed mix results: increased mortality, and reduced calcification , some show increase, while others show no effect |
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climate change and diseases |
new diseases as ranges shift cholera and el nino vector diseases, |
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Cholera |
as temp goes up, vibrio cholera, range increases microbe is sensitive to ocean temp tight correlation to sea surface temp and cholera outbreaks, as seen by stats |
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malaria |
strong correlation with high precipitation and incidence occurance mosquitos range changes also |